The 2023 election is shaping up to be the most competitive since the return of democracy in 1999 and for first the time, Nigeria is having a valid strong 3-man horse race that might end in a photo finish. The three candidates have what it takes to win the election. Regardless of who wins, motivational speakers will have a lot of lessons to draw from it. A victory for Atiku will speak on persistence, a Tinubu victory will teach long-term planning while Peter Obi will be on the powers of the citizens to make impossibilities possible
I have read so many polls for the election predicting different winners. I agree and disagree with some of the contents in the poll. I have gone ahead to conduct my poll, sampling my friends in different states and using my understanding of Nigerian politics.
Here is my analysis
Runoff
I have read many analysts’ project that the election is likely to go to a runoff. Section 134 of the Nigerian constitution spells out the ground for a runoff. For a candidate to win at the presidential poll he or she must score 25% of votes in 24 states. The only candidate I had fears that he might not be capable of winning 1/4 of the votes in 24 states was Peter Obi. But his recent foray into the North Central and also into Christian communities in North East is aimed at eliminating that disadvantage. The candidate of the APC and the PDP will have no problem with getting 25%. Atiku will get 25% in all SS states and also in the 19 northern states. Tinubu will get 25% in SW and all 19 northern states. Once any candidates get 25% of the votes cast in 24 states and get the highest single vote, that candidate is declared the winner.
Atiku’s path to victory
Atiku has concentrated his election strategy in the north. His strategy is simple: get the bulk votes of Northern Nigeria and grab whatever he can from the South to emerge the winner. Atiku is competing fiercely in the Northwest and may likely win that zone. In the NE he is likely to win Taraba and Adamawa and have a fierce battle with the APC in Bauchi. In the North West, he is being tipped to win Kaduna but will be locked in a fierce battle with the APC in most of the states in North West. In North Central, the only state he might win is Niger state. He will do poorly in the South East. I do not expect him or any candidate to get 25% in the SE. He will also do poorly in the SW except for Osun state. He will not get 25% in all SW states except Osun and Oyo. Atiku will do well in the South-South which is a traditional zone of the PDP. If the South-South turns up for him and he gets the bulk of votes in the North as envisaged then he is on his way to becoming the president of Nigeria
Ahmed Bola Tinubu’s path to victory
All Tinubu needs to win the 2023 election is to maintain the same path of victory that has worked well for the APC since 2015. Get the chunk of votes in the North West and North East and consolidate with votes from South West. The only problem is that Atiku is driving a northern agenda making victory in the north much more difficult. The obedient movement appears to be strong in the southwest. However, Tinubu is expected to win South West with about 55%. He needs to win by 70-75% to cover up for losses in other zones. He will win all Southwestern states with no problem except for Lagos where he might lose or marginally win. He is expected to do well in North Central, winning Kogi and Kwara. He will come second in Benue and Plateau and will compete to win in Nassarawa and Niger. In the North East, he will take Borno and Yobe with not much stress, and compete fiercely in Bauchi. Gombe and Taraba will be anyone’s game. In the South-South, he will get 25% in Delta, Edo, Bayelsa, Rivers, and Cross Rivers. In the South East, he will not get anything significant.
Peter Obi’s path to Victory.
For Peter Obi to stand a chance of winning he has to follow the GEJ 2011 strategy; win comprehensively in the South and take whatever he can from the North. However, this will be a difficult task. The southwest is already taken by Tinubu making it a compulsion that he must win the South-South convincingly to stand a chance. The old PDP war horses in the South-South may throw up a surprise. While Peter is expected to win the South East by 95%, he needs to win the South-South by 60% to make the victory in SE count in numbers. Peter is also expected to win Benue and Plateau. He will do well in Nassarawa and will win FCT. However, he is yet to crack North West and the North East. He might get 25% in Kaduna. This is the best I think he can go in North West. In the North East, he has Taraba and Gombe to hope on due to their strong Christian population but I don’t know how far it will go as the other two candidates are expected to do well in the two states. Despite Adamawa having a large Christian population, I expect Atiku to triumph there even within the Christian population. I expect Obi to win Lagos or if he is to lose, marginally
Kwankwaso factor
Kwankwaso can’t get 25% of the votes cast in 24 states. I am certain that he will not get 25% in any southern state. However, he will win Kano and ensure neither Atiku nor Tinubu gets the Buhari figures in the North West.
Traditional Structure v New Structure
For years, I have been an advocate of the media replacing the traditional structure. Anyone who knows me well would have seen this in some of my writing. This election is proof that the media is fast replacing the traditional structure. What structure do is pass information to voters at the grassroots about who they are to vote for and influence their voting pattern? The obedient movement has utilized the new media to bypass the traditional structure to communicate directly with voters. One use of the traditional structure is at the polling units where personality factor comes into play to influence votes. On Saturday, we will know who would come out tops between the traditional structure and the new structure.
Propaganda is Politics
To win an election, you must win the propaganda war. In 2015, the APC won the propaganda war. In 2023, the Obidients have borrowed from the APC strategy of 2015 and are now winning the propaganda war. If you don’t understand what propaganda is, please use google. As a media strategist to win an election in Nigeria, you must create a villain and hero character, then successfully place your candidate as the hero and others as villains. For you to win any election, you must win the local propaganda war, if your propaganda aligns with any group or community, be rest assured of their votes.
Election violence
I am predicting a certain level of election violence in the SE if Tinubu wins. An Atiku victory will be accepted by everyone. The Obidients take Atiku as their second choice while the BATIST might prefer an Atiku over Peter Obi
Voting pattern.
The voting pattern is largely influenced by religion and ethnicity. A very significant population is also influenced by competence.
Obi Trice is the author of Thoughts In Disarray. He comments regularly on sociopolitical issues.
